Russian forces conducted a limited series of drone and missile strikes against targets in Ukraine on May 4.
Ukrainian military officials reported on May 4 that Russian forces launched 13 Shahed-136/131 drones and four S-300 air defense missiles from Belgorod Oblast on the night of May 4.[57] Ukrainian air defenses and mobile fire groups destroyed the 13 Shahed drones over Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration Head Serhii Lysak reported that debris from downed drones damaged critical infrastructure and three houses.[58] Kharkiv Oblast officials reported that debris from Russian Shahed drones caused three large fires in warehouses in Kharkiv City and injured several civilians, including a young girl.[59] Ukrainian Eastern Air Command later reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Kh-59/69 guided missile over Dnipro raion, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on the evening of May 4.[60] Ukraine‘s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces conducted a cruise missile strike, presumably with a Kh-59 guided missile, against Kirovohrad Oblast and struck 20 residential and commercial buildings and a gas pipeline.[61] Odesa Oblast Military Administration Head Oleh Kiper reported that Russian forces conducted a missile strike against targets in Odesa raion using an unspecified number and type of missiles, damaging civilian infrastructure and injuring three people on the afternoon of May 4.[62]
Russian forces are reportedly adjusting their strike packages to include greater numbers of ballistic and guided missiles. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Major Ilya Yevlash reported on May 4 that Russian forces have recently significantly decreased their use of attack drones, namely Shahed drones, during Russian strikes against Ukraine.[63] Yevlash stated that Russian forces are using a greater number of ballistic and guided missiles, such as Kh-59 missiles, over Shahed drones. Yevlash warned that Russian forces are likely accumulating weapons to conduct strikes in honor of upcoming holidays, including Orthodox Easter and the May 9 Victory Day holiday. Yevlash reported that Russian forces are using reconnaissance drones and Su-24MR aircraft in place of A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft to conduct reconnaissance along the Russia-Ukraine border and frontline areas. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk stated that Russian forces are using ballistic missiles in place of less accurate sea-based cruise missiles.[64] Pletencuk stated that Russian forces are launching ballistic missiles, namely Iskander-M missiles, from occupied Crimea and that these missiles are particularly dangerous because their proximity to Ukraine allows Ukrainian forces very little reaction time.
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- Russian forces made a notable tactical advance northwest of Avdiivka near Arkhanhelske on the night of May 3 to 4, likely following a Ukrainian decision to withdraw from the area on May 3.
- The Kremlin continues efforts to portray its unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine as something other than what it is while continuing to assert the jurisdiction of Russian federal law over sovereign states.
- The Russian law enforcement conducted a search on May 4 of supporters of imprisoned Russian ultranationalist and former officer Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov) in Tula Oblast, possibly in an attempt to set information conditions to ban the movement in Russia.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka and Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
- The Kremlin is continuing its ongoing campaign to centralize control over Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) irregular forces by co-opting DNR commanders and officials.
Russian forces made a notable tactical advance northwest of Avdiivka near Arkhanhelske on the night of May 3 to 4, likely following a Ukrainian decision to withdraw from the area on May 3. ...Additional geolocated footage published on May 4 indicates that Russian forces advanced in the eastern outskirts of Arkhanhelske.[2] ISW assesses that the Russian seizure of Arkhanhelske also indicates that Russian forces likely control Keramik and Novokalynove (both southeast of Arkhanhelske). Geolocated footage published on May 3 shows Ukrainian forces withdrawing from northern Arkhanhelske, ... Ukrainian forces may have decided to trade space for time as they wait for the arrival of US aid to the frontline at scale in the coming weeks – an appropriate decision for an under-resourced force at risk of being outflanked.[5] ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are likely trying to take advantage of the limited time window before the arrival of Western military aid deliveries by intensifying offensive operations and that Russian forces may make further tactical advances in this area in the near future.[6]
Russian forces appear to be choosing to exploit the tactical situation northwest of Avdiivka – a sound military undertaking – but their ultimate objective in this frontline sector remains unclear. Russian forces appear to be choosing to exploit the area where Russian forces are most likely to make tactical gains in the near future, but it is unclear if they will continue to drive north toward Toretsk or return to their previous focus on Pokrovsk to the northwest.[7] Russian forces have already committed roughly a division’s worth of combat power (comprised mainly of four Central Military District [CMD] brigades) to the frontline northwest of Avdiivka and were reportedly continuing to introduce additional forces in this general area.[8] Ukrainian sources have recently reported that Russia committed elements of the 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st Combined Arms Army, CMD) to the Novobakhmutivka area (south of Ocheretyne).[9] Russian forces were likely to continue to push northwest of Avdiivka as long as there were opportunities to exploit the tactical situation in the area.
On the territory of the so-called Luhansk People's Republic, the occupation authorities threaten to take away newborns if the parents do not have Russian citizenship.